India's Strategic Calculus: Skipping China's BRI Summit

In the complex arena of international politics, every move, or in this case, the decision not to move, carries significant implications. The recent news that India is likely to skip China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit is a decision that has raised eyebrows and sparked numerous discussions about the strategic choices India is making on the global stage. This blog post delves into the background of India's relationship with the BRI, the reasons behind its potential decision to skip the summit, and the broader geopolitical implications.

The Belt and Road Initiative, commonly known as BRI, is an ambitious infrastructure development project initiated by the Chinese government in 2013. This colossal undertaking aims to enhance connectivity and cooperation among countries, predominantly in Asia, Europe, and Africa, by investing in infrastructure projects like roads, railways, ports, and energy pipelines.

The BRI is divided into two main components: the Silk Road Economic Belt, which focuses on land-based projects, and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, which emphasizes maritime infrastructure. Together, they form the "Belt and Road."

The project's scale is staggering, involving over 70 countries, and it has often been characterized as China's push to establish a new Silk Road, reflecting its ambitions as a global superpower.

India's Approach to the BRI

India's stance on the Belt and Road Initiative has been one of caution and skepticism from the outset. While the project's promises of enhanced connectivity and economic growth are appealing, India has raised a series of concerns.

1. Territorial Disputes: A primary concern for India is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the BRI. CPEC passes through Pakistan-administered Kashmir, a region that India claims as its own. India sees the Chinese investment in CPEC as a violation of its territorial integrity.

2. Debt Diplomacy: India has expressed concerns over what it perceives as China's "debt diplomacy." It worries that the massive infrastructure loans provided by China to participating countries may lead to debt dependencies, giving China undue influence over those nations.

3. Lack of Transparency: India has also criticized the lack of transparency in the BRI's decision-making processes and the absence of any clear project selection criteria.

4. Geopolitical Implications: India is wary of the geopolitical implications of the BRI, as it could potentially lead to an increased Chinese presence in its neighboring countries, thereby undermining India's regional influence.

India's Decision to Potentially Skip the BRI Summit

With this background, it is essential to understand why India is considering skipping China's BRI summit. There are several key factors at play:

1. Ongoing Border Dispute: India's relationship with China has been tense, especially after a violent clash along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Galwan Valley in 2020. The border dispute remains unresolved, leading to mistrust between the two nations.

2. Sovereignty and Territorial Concerns: India's concerns about the CPEC's path through disputed territories have not been addressed. This territorial issue remains a major obstacle in India's willingness to engage with the BRI.

3. Continued Skepticism: India's skepticism about the transparency and potential debt risks associated with the BRI has not dissipated. The lack of concrete steps to address these concerns has fueled India's hesitation.

4. Alternative Alliances: India has been actively seeking alternative alliances, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. It is part of the Quad, a strategic forum that includes the United States, Japan, and Australia, which aims to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific. India's growing engagement with this group aligns with its broader strategy of countering China's influence.

5. Focus on Regional Connectivity: Instead of the BRI, India has been focusing on its own regional connectivity initiatives, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor and the Chabahar Port project in Iran. These initiatives are part of India's effort to strengthen its regional connectivity while avoiding entanglements with the BRI.

6. Symbolic Diplomacy: India's potential decision to skip the BRI summit serves as a diplomatic message. It signals to China that its concerns have not been addressed, and India is willing to act on its convictions.

7. Diplomatic Leverage: By abstaining from the BRI summit, India gains diplomatic leverage. It can use its absence as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with China, particularly regarding the border dispute.

Geopolitical Implications

India's decision to potentially skip the BRI summit carries significant geopolitical implications:

1. Strengthening of Alternative Alliances: India's focus on strengthening alternative alliances like the Quad and its growing partnership with countries like the United States reinforces its role as a significant player in the Indo-Pacific. This, in turn, challenges China's regional ambitions.

2. Sovereignty as a Priority: India's stance on the BRI underscores its prioritization of sovereignty and territorial integrity. It sends a clear message that India will not compromise on issues related to its sovereignty.

3. Enhanced Diplomatic Posture: India's willingness to make calculated diplomatic decisions, such as skipping the BRI summit, demonstrates its proactive approach to safeguarding its interests on the global stage.

4. Economic Impact: By skipping the BRI, India may potentially miss out on economic opportunities. However, it is willing to make that sacrifice in favor of safeguarding its strategic interests.

5. Border Resolution: The decision may also put additional pressure on both countries to find a resolution to their border disputes.

Conclusion

India's potential decision to skip China's BRI summit is a carefully calculated move. It reflects India's unwavering commitment to protecting its territorial sovereignty, addressing its concerns about the BRI, and asserting itself on the global stage. The decision serves as a reminder that diplomatic choices carry immense weight and can significantly impact regional and global dynamics. As the situation continues to evolve, it will be interesting to observe how this decision shapes India's future interactions with China and the broader geopolitical landscape.